GDP growth accelerate to 5.1% yoy in 1Q24 (+5.04% yoy in 4Q23),a bit higher than consensus expectation at roughly +5.08% yoy. Growth in the 1Q24 was supported by consumption at +6.6% yoy (4.5% yoy in 4Q23) but offset by further deceleration in investment +3.8% yoy (+5.0/+5.8% yoy in 4Q/3Q23). The deceleration in investments was aligned with political year, while the increase in consumption was impacted by the coincidence of Chinese New Year, National Election and Eid Festivity.
On sector breakdown, growth was mainly coming from Mining sector at +9.3% yoy in 1Q24 (+7.5% yoy in 4Q23).Followed by Hotel & Restaurant at +9.4% yoy (+7.9% yoy in 4Q23). Interesting to see that the Manufacturing sector inched-up to +4.1% yoy (+4.0% yoy in 34Q23), which most likely impacted by the election related spending such as clothing, etc.
We think the growth in 1Q24 will be the highest in FY24, since the coincidence of events will not be seen until year-end. We expect economic growth to be relatively stable at c. 5.0% yoy in FY24on the back of (1) clear election outcome may attract higher-than-expected FDI in the 2H24 and (2) accelerating government consumption at c.+9.1% yoy (2.9% yoy in FY23) as more social aid to be distributed and national projects will be speed-up. (IndoPremier Research)
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